AUGUSTA, Ga. (WFXG) - An upper and surface trough and increasing atmospheric moisture is expected to provide high chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge will begin building over the region this weekend, acting to reduce areal coverage of diurnal convection. An upper level trough will dig into the eastern US early next week with a frontal boundary entering the region midweek, resulting in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. The upper ridge will remain in control on Monday ahead of a pattern shift as deep upper troughing digs south from the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley pushing a cold front into the Appalachians by late Monday night.
Chances of rain increase significantly Tue/Wed as the upper trough digs further and the frontal boundary pushes into the forecast area and becomes a focus for convection. Precipitable water values rise back to around 2 inches so heavy rain will be a threat and isolated flooding possible. Will continue to carry likely pops on Tue/Wed but then lower pops on Thursday as the front pushes further south and much drier air builds in from the north as precipitable water values fall below 1.5 inches. Temperatures remain at or above normal Mon/Tue with highs in the 90s but then fall below normal Wed/Thu due to abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front with highs in the 80s.