(WFXG) - High pressure over the area will provide dry weather through Wednesday. The high will be off the Southeast Coast Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of thunderstorms will return Friday with the passage of a cold front. Dry high pressure returns early next week. The primary forecast issue during the long term period is the threat of severe weather Thursday night into Friday.
SPC has included the forecast area in a 15 percent probability for severe weather in the Day 4 outlook. A deep upper trough will move into the Deep South and become a cut off low on Friday. The cold front will move into the forecast area Friday morning and shift east of the area Friday afternoon. Deep moisture will be in place with model precipitable water values ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Model soundings indicate strong shear with 0 to 6 km values around 50 to 60 knots and 0 to 1 km values around 30 to 40 knots. Instability appears moderate. Expected heating to be limited by cloud cover. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, although there is also a risk of tornadoes and hail. Maintained categorical rain chances amounts are around an inch to an inch and a quarter. Locally heavy rainfall is also a concern given high precipitable water values. It will be breezy Thursday night through Saturday, and a lake wind advisory will likely be needed.