Monday, April 8 2013 6:08 AM EDT2013-04-08 10:08:19 GMT
Police plan stepped-up patrols in Ann Arbor as Michigan's basketball team plays in Atlanta and tries for its first national title since 1989. Police on campus and in Ann Arbor plan to have extra officersMore >>
Police plan stepped-up patrols in Ann Arbor as Michigan's basketball team plays in Atlanta and tries for its first national title since 1989.More >>
Sunday, April 7 2013 7:24 AM EDT2013-04-07 11:24:29 GMT
(RNN) – It takes some people most of their lives to achieve something noteworthy, but college basketball players can do it during a 40-minute span by the time they reach 22. An entire month – or careerMore >>
All championship games are special for one reason or another, but some stand out more than the rest.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 11:50 AM EDT2013-05-23 15:50:16 GMT
TOKYO (APTN/FOX) - An 80-year-old climber became the oldest person ever to climb Mount Everest, despite undergoing heart surgery in January. Japanese mountaineer Yuichiro Miura called his daughter from theMore >>
The old-age ascent is just the latest in a lifetime of daring feats for adventurous Yuichiro Miura.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 11:26 AM EDT2013-05-23 15:26:22 GMT
MONTAGUE COUNTY, TX (KTVT/FOX) - A law enforcement officer who took three bullets at close range will return to work Sunday after two months away from the job. Deputy James Boyd pulled over a car MarchMore >>
The officer's bulletproof vest saved his life, but some physical and mental scars will remain visible for a long time.More >>
Wednesday, May 22 2013 5:24 PM EDT2013-05-22 21:24:25 GMT
MOORE, OK (RTV/FOX) - The deadly tornadoes in Oklahoma aren't just taking a toll on people, they're also affecting pets. Many of them have lost their owners and are now housed at a makeshift shelter. TheMore >>
A makeshift animal shelter has cared for between 50 and 60 cats and dogs since Monday, and in some cases there are happy reunions. More >>
Wednesday, May 22 2013 4:03 PM EDT2013-05-22 20:03:31 GMT
DOTHAN, AL (WHDN/FOX) - State health officials said a mysterious respiratory illness has left two people dead and five hospitalized in southeast Alabama. The Alabama Department of Public Health said inMore >>
Two of the seven people already admitted to the hospital have died, and no one knows what is causing the illness.More >>
Tuesday, May 21 2013 2:58 PM EDT2013-05-21 18:58:53 GMT
WASHINGTON, DC (WTTG/FOX) – While preparing for Memorial Day or any other outside activity, many people forget one important thing – sunscreen. Tim Turnham, an expert with the Melanoma Research Foundation, saidMore >>
Cases of melanoma, a type of skin cancer, are growing 2 percent annually for children and 3 percent for adults. The rate has doubled since 1973.More >>
(RNN) – Oklahoma State will clobber Oregon. North Carolina will ease past Villanova. North Carolina State will easily handle Temple, and in one of the best matchups of the tournament, Colorado State will defeat Missouri by 0.00016.
How am I able to so boldly predict the future? Arithmetic, that's how. Highly specialized, fourth-grade arithmetic.
Nate Silver, America's favorite statistician, who predicted the presidential election outcome on the nose, used all kinds of computers and high-function equations to fill out his NCAA tournament bracket.
I used the third edition of Basketball Math, Slam-Dunk Activities and Projects for Grades 4-8.
That thing on Amazon that recommends books you'd like based on your browsing history is amazing. It said I would like this $1.39 fourth-grade math workbook that tricks kids into doing their homework by making them do basketball statistics.
I love me some hoops. And unlike most journalists, I can find the calculator function on my iPhone.
No human ever punched the trademarked Buy-now-with-1-Click button more quickly. This is a great book, people.
It not only teaches the nuts-and-bolts stats like free throw percentage and points per game. It gets into the esoteric, high-minded stuff that compares teams and players by using the "points per play" method.
I had noticed that statistic cropping up more and more often in the nerdier niches of sports journalism. And I have since learned that gamblers have from time immemorial used variants of it in their never-ending quest to pick more than 50 percent of games correctly.
Like Sabermetrics in baseball it measures offensive efficiency. The concept is founded on the indisputable fact that the team that scores the most points wins. You will have far fewer scoring possessions than non-scoring possessions - but you can measure which teams are, on the whole, more productive than others.
The math is pretty simple, too. You could get a lot more complicated if you wanted to, but here's the short equation.
Basically, you divide total points by possessions. Possessions equals shots taken, turnovers and free throws divided by two. (This is not a precise measurement, since sometimes single free throws are awarded after a made basket. But it's close enough for our purposes.)
The stats are readily available on the school's athletic websites and you can do the math on a cocktail napkin.
The fractional number is our magic indicator of offensive success. So let's see if it works.
I didn't pick all 32 games. Too much work, and there are never that many great matchups in the first round. But I did check out a few that looked like they ought to be close and interesting.
Here we go:
Eighth-seeded Colorado has a razor-thin edge over Ninth-seeded Missouri. The Buffs average 0.91906 per possession, Mizzou pumps in 0.91890 per trip. If Missouri plays really good defense, and can limit Colorado's touches, it has a chance.
Fifth-seeded Oklahoma State (0.902220) should crush the 12th-seeded Oregon Ducks (0.86458), even though those 5-12 seed games are often really interesting. This would also be a pretty good football game.
Often sketchy North Carolina (0.898699), an 8-seed, should get by workmanlike Big East foe Villanova (0.84377358), seeded ninth. I'll be surprised if the winner doesn't get destroyed by Kansas in the next round, though.
Another 8-9 seed, ACC vs. Big East matchup features North Carolina State (0.9575), a solid favorite over Temple (0.91008). This game should be called "Gateway to Getting Clobbered By Indiana."
Need something to help you get through two weeks of March Madness? Try playing Basketball Cliche Bingo. Mark off the words or phrases that are overused during each game of the tourney.More >>
Don't like basketball? Need something to help you get through two weeks of March Madness? Try playing Basketball Cliche Bingo. Mark off the words or phrases that are overused during each game of the tournament.More >>